Russia planning major military exercises near Ukraine border

Russia is preparing to hold major annual military exercises, called Caucasus 2016, near the Ukrainian border in September, the first such exercises aimed at integrating the defense of Crimea into Moscow's plans. Russia is also bolstering its military presence along its Western frontier in a bid to counter deployments by NATO forces in Eastern Europe.

A visit by Russian President Vadimir Putin to Crimea in Aug 2016 further inflamed tensions with Ukraine, prompting Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to say that a military draft or even martial law could be introduced if hostilities continued. Fighting in eastern Ukraine has increased to levels not seen since before a cease-fire agreement in Sep 2015, with tens of thousands of Russian troops based just across the border supporting pro-Russian separatists with military hardware and even direct support on the battlefield. Although Kiev remains nervous that the Kremlin is preparing for an invasion, some analysts believe that Russia is trying to provoke an overreaction from Ukraine and put Moscow on a more favorable footing ahead of a European decision on extending tough economic sanctions applied following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. Experts also believe Russia is attempting to raise the stakes ahead of a G20 meeting in China on Sep 4-5, where discussions on progress in implementing the Minsk ceasefire agreement, which has so far proved ineffectual, are due to take place.